Poll Dancing – When The Data Scientist Shouldn’t Lead

It’s fair to say that pollsters won’t be looking back on 2016 with any fondness. Wrong on Brexit and spectacularly wrong on Trump, the polling industry has taken such a dent to its reputation that it will likely take a long time before it’s fully trusted again.

But just why did the pollsters get it so wrong when, in the past, they have got it so right ? It’s a complex question to answer but let me try to explain… Firstly, for many reasons, it’s really hard to get a representative sample. The decline in use of landlines and the fact that people would seemingly rather take a poll about the colour of Donald Trump’s hair than a legitimate poll are just two contributing factors.

Author: Michael Upchurch


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s