Big Data’s Big Misses: 2016 Was a Bad Year For Predictions

Goodbye 2016. The journalists and analysts who work with numbers will not miss you. From the United States to the United Kingdom, the last 12 months will be remembered for missed calls, surprises and upsets that didn’t just beat the odds, but that shattered them – and not just in politics. On the most basic level, 2016 was a bad year for data.

Of course, President-elect Donald Trump is a big part of the story here. Going into Election Day, most odds makers had Trump as long long shot, with a less than 30% chance of winning the presidency. The data mavens at, gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning. The Upshot at the New York Times gave him a 15% chance of winning. Others had the numbers much lower, 2% or less.

Author: Dante Chinni


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