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Election forecasts are no crystal ball, data scientist explains

In the 2016 Democratic primary in Michigan, Hillary Clinton surprised many by losing to Bernie Sanders. Jody Heck Wortman, a data scientist for the Democratic National Committee, brought a new perspective to one of the biggest election forecasting mistakes in the 2016 election during a talk Wednesday afternoon.

She said that Sanders’ whopping 20-point win should not have been viewed as unexpectedly as it was. “You want to use forecasting in a way that actually makes a difference, either by making your voters and constituents more happy, or convincing more people to vote for you,” Wortman said. “Or, by convincing people who would vote for you to actually get out instead of staying at home.”

Source: dukechronicle.com
Author: Micalyn Struble

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